Public observability layer
Reform Impact Monitor
Deterministic pre/post observed-movement comparison · Evidence View primary · Dashboard View secondary visual interpretation.
Reform Impact Monitor · mandatory disclaimer
Observed-movement comparison only. Reform overlays are descriptive context and do not establish causation. Not a regulatory determination.
Methodology
Stage 8 methodology for the Reform Impact Monitor. Deterministic pre/post comparison of observed EGM counts at state grain and LGA grain. No prediction, no causation, no policy effectiveness rating.
Computation parameters
- Comparison window: 4 publication anchors on each side of the reform date.
- Minimum periods per side for a non-too-early assessment: 3.
- No-material threshold: ±2% on overall observed movement.
- Dedupe: per (canonical_venue_id, period_anchor), Type B (net_profit) takes precedence over Type C (per-machine) where both are published.
- Aggregation: median of per-venue EGM counts across the window.
- Reform registry version: 1.0.0.
Fixed assessment vocabulary
- Observable movement detected
- No material observable movement
- Mixed movement
- Insufficient data
- Too early to assess
Only these five labels are permitted. No other classification language is supported by Stage 8.
Stage 8 discipline
- deterministic_computation_only
- no_prediction
- no_causation_claim
- no_intervention_recommendation
- no_harm_forecast
- no_venue_danger_scoring
- no_hidden_models
- no_autonomous_classification
- evidence_view_is_primary
- dashboard_view_never_removes_lineage
- every_reform_carries_source_citation
- assessment_vocabulary_is_fixed
- recent_reforms_may_be_too_early
Observed-movement comparison only. Reform overlays are descriptive context and do not establish causation. Not a regulatory determination.